Scott Walker's 2016 Ambitions May Hit 2014 Roadblock
Wisconsin governor testing national appeal with book tour centered around 2012 recall victory
November 25, 2013
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is eyeing the White House, but faces a tough re-election in 2014 first.
Scott Walker's national tour promoting his new book recounting
his vigorously contested 2012 recall win is essentially a belated
victory lap designed to elevate his stature in anticipation of a White
House run.
The 46-year-old Republican governor of Wisconsin has barely hidden
the fact he's testing the waters for a 2016 presidential bid, a prospect
only enhanced by his success in beating back the historic attempt to
remove him from office midway through his term following a knock-down,
drag-out fight with the state's public employee unions.
[
READ: Some Governors Face Uphill Road to 2014 Re-election]
But standing between him and his unconcealed national ambition is yet
another gubernatorial re-election campaign next year -- one that looks
surprisingly more competitive than expected, especially given how
demoralized Democrats were after Walker ran rings around them 17 months
ago.
In the aftermath of that loss, Democrats whispered ruefully about how
the recall process had botched their opportunity at upending arguably
the most polarizing governor in the country.
That doom-and-gloom assumption has now evaporated in the wake of
polling demonstrating Walker's consistent middling popularity and the
emergence of a fresh-faced candidate who Democrats appear to be
consolidating around.
Walker may already have one eye trained on a larger electoral prize,
but operatives on both sides of the aisle are in agreement that his
third gubernatorial race could shape up to be his toughest yet.
"This will be a close race for sure. No blowouts will occur here,"
said Democratic media strategist Jim Margolis, President Obama's adman
who is now tasked with helping to defeat Walker.
"I believe he has a fight coming," said Brandon Scholz, a
Madison-based consultant and former executive director of the Wisconsin
Republican Party.
One woman who is certainly betting on Walker's vulnerability is his
only announced Democratic opponent, Mary Burke, a 54-year-old former
state Secretary of Commerce and school board member who is widely
unknown in Democratic activist circles.
A former executive at her family-owned Trek Bicycle, Burke was
recruited by Wisconsin Democratic Party officials to run after they
conducted dozens of focus-groups designed to identify the traits best
suited to contrast with Walker.
Burke checks virtually every box: a woman with a sterling business
background and deep roots in the state who isn't a lifelong politician.
It doesn't hurt that she's also a multimillionaire already plugging her
own money into the endeavor.
"I spent time making sure if I got into it, I could win," Burke said.
But the same novelty that party leaders found attractive in the
centrist Burke is raising red flags among some of the most ardent
progressive activists in a state known for a historic streak of
liberalism. Since her formal entrance into the race in October, assorted
liberals have complained about her unwillingness to pledge to roll back
Walker's collective bargaining reforms, her company's outsourcing of
jobs overseas and her considerable personal wealth.
Grumbling aside, Burke's aides are cautiously optimistic she will
avoid a divisive primary and slowly but surely win over skeptics who
will swallow their ideological pride in the pursuit of defeating Walker
and halting any presidential preparations squarely in their tracks.
[
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In fact, Burke's unwillingness to revisit the collective bargaining
issue will presumably make her more marketable to the smidgen of
remaining persuadable Badger State voters she'll need to pull off the
upset.
"Many moderates have no special interest in that issue, at least any
more," said Paul Fanlund, a left-leaning columnist for the Madison-based
Capital Times who is urging liberals to back Burke. "Her estrangement
from the far left might be helpful later."
A Marquette University poll -- which accurately tracked the outcome
of the 2012 recall -- provided additional heartening news for Democrats.
Burke trailed Walker by only two points in the late October survey,
even though a staggering 70 percent of respondents said they didn't have
enough information about Burke to form an opinion.
A $1 million pro-Walker television ad blitz in September funded by
Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce appeared to have little effect on
boosting the governor's popularity.
"I think Scott Walker has a ceiling and I think he's in the
neighborhood of that ceiling right now," said Margolis, pointing to the
governor's 47 percent in the Marquette poll to Burke's 45 percent.
"It's an immediate wake-up call that Wisconsin's in play."
Walker's team appears not to be rattled about the prospect of a close race.
"A generic Dem will get 45 percent in this race," said a Walker
adviser not authorized to speak on the record. "It's going to be close
regardless."
The governor's playbook against Burke will be to label her as a
throwback to Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle's eight-year reign -- a period of
economic stagnation, high taxes and deficits.
"We're confident that voters want to continue moving Wisconsin
forward, and have no desire to return to the failed policies of the
past," said Walker campaign manager Stephan Thompson in a statement.
But even on the economy -- Walker's supposed sweet spot -- there's a gaping opening for an attack.
It's unlikely his administration will hit its 2010 campaign pledge of
creating 250,000 new jobs in the state by 2015 and Democrats are
seizing upon a Moody's report that says Wisconsin remains one of the
worst states for projected job growth.
"He can't blame anybody else. He's called every shot. He's gotten his
way on everything. He has woefully performed on jobs compared to the
other states around him," said Pete Giangreco, a Burke adviser who will
handle the direct mail campaign.
Then there's the ongoing John Doe investigation, in which Milwaukee
prosecutors continue to subpoena Walker allies in order to investigate
the relationship between the governor's campaign and the independent
groups that backed him.
[
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Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett made no headway raising the issue in
2012, but even the slight whiff of scandal is a detriment in a margin of
error race.
"He should sue for harassment," sniffed consultant Scholz, who views the entire ordeal as a partisan witch hunt.
If Burke can keep the race close heading into next fall, national
interest in the race will explode given Walker's White House dreams.
Outside groups like EMILY's List and Planned Parenthood are already
expected to invest heavily to counter Walker's fundraising juggernaut,
which collected more than $30 million for the 2012 contest.
The cash-flush Republican Governors Association and the Koch
brothers' Americans for Prosperity can be expected to come to Walker's
aid once again.
"I think he will spend ungodly sums," acknowledged Margolis. "But the spotlight lights up everything for everybody."
Assuming the GOP fundraising advantage isn't gargantuan, Democrats
say the race will come down to two overriding factors, which are neither
wholly separate nor completely intertwined.
The one largely out of their control is the overall national
environment and the strength of the headwind they will face during a
midterm year. That assessment will shift another half dozen times before
Election Day based on President Obama's standing and the issue matrix
driving the conversation.
The other factor well within their influence is reaching the
Walker-Obama voters -- those who supported the governor in a recall
effort who then returned to cast a ballot for the president five months
later. There are more than 200,000 of them and Burke's team believes
they are ripe for the picking, assuming their vote against the recall
was largely protesting what they saw as an illegitimate process, not a
full-fledged embrace of Walker.
As a result of the Obama team's robust effort to secure the state's
10 electoral votes last fall, invaluable campaign infrastructure like
the state's voter file have been vastly improved, a boon for Burke.
"We know more than ever about not just where, but who the drop-off
voters are, based on the Obama campaign," said a Democratic operative
who has worked several Wisconsin campaigns.
Whether they can successfully reach them will not only determine
Burke's fate, but could very well reshape the presidential field before
it has even fully formed.
David Catanese is managing editor of TheRun2016.com.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) coined a spirited term over the weekend for a trio of high-powered Republicans from the Badger State.
In a Saturday interview with USA Today’s Capital Download, Walker talked about his friendship with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). When asked if both he and Ryan could run for president in 2016, Walker said it was an "interesting question," adding that "who knows what the future will bring?"
What he was sure of was the success of three big-name Wisconsin Republicans, remarking how he, Ryan and Reince Priebus all grew up within miles of one another.
"Paul grew up 15 miles to the west of me," Walker said. "Reince Priebus, who’s the RNC (Republican National Committee) chair, grew up about 20 miles to the east of me. There must have been something in the water at the time….We say it’s kind of a Cheesehead Revolution."
With nearly three years to go before the 2016 presidential picture hits its peak, HuffPost Pollster's latest compilation of 27 publicly available polls shows Ryan and Walker both in the mix as potential GOP candidates. Ryan, who served as the party's 2012 vice presidential candidate, netted 11 percent of the hypothetical vote, while Walker earned eight percent.